Order Book Enters 2028 and the Americas Stabilize, But the Guidance Raise Only Matched the Street

Results vs. Consensus

Q3 2026 — Standalone Scorecard

Ferrari reports in euros under IFRS, and the scorecard below is framed that way. Every actual and prior-year comparative traces to the income statement in the results release rather than to figures quoted verbally on the call.

Two euro consensus tapes circulated into this print and they do not agree on the profit lines. One carried EBIT at €547.3M and EPS at €2.32, the other EBIT at €553M and EPS at €2.37. The table uses the more widely cited figures and shows the range where it matters. A third, pre-print sell-side model independently carried EBITDA at €737M on a 39.0% margin with shipments down 1.5%, which brackets the same answer: Ferrari beat on profit, landed on revenue, and delivered a slightly better volume number than the Street carried.

One row deserves a note rather than a celebration. Adjusted figures equal reported figures in this quarter and in the comparative, because there were no adjustments to EBITDA, EBIT, net profit or either EPS measure in either period. That is unusual in this sector and it is a quality marker.

Year-over-Year Comparison

Margin deltas in basis points are the company's own disclosed roundings, taken from its comparison table. The revenue-per-delivered-car line is this desk's calculation, dividing cars-and-spare-parts revenue by total shipments, and it is an approximation rather than a disclosed average selling price: it carries spare parts in the numerator and excludes limited racing cars, one-offs and pre-owned sales from the denominator. The prior-year industrial free cash flow of €396M is the company's re-presented figure, restated to include €32M mainly of withholding taxes paid in that quarter.

Nine-Month Roll-Up

The nine-month picture is the full-year story in miniature: revenue up 6% on units down 3.0%, with most of the gap closed by revenue per car and the remainder by racing, lifestyle and engine-rental revenue. The constant-currency columns are the company's disclosed figures and are not reproducible by arithmetic on the reported numbers, because the restatement strips transaction effects, translation effects and hedges together.

The gap between the reported and constant-currency growth rates is the largest single number in this table. Over nine months EBIT growth of 7% becomes 15%, and in the quarter 12% becomes 23%. Currency, net of hedges, took €113M out of nine-month operating profit. On a €1,716M base that is not a rounding item.

Sequential Context — Q3 2026 vs. Q2 2026

The sequential table holds the most analytically useful fact in the quarter, and the headline numbers hide it. EBIT margin fell 150 basis points quarter over quarter while EBITDA margin rose 70. The entire divergence is depreciation and amortization, which went from €150M to €190M, or from 7.7% of revenue to 10.0%. The June quarter's 31.2% EBIT margin was flattered by what management itself called "temporary lower D&A in line with the ongoing model change-over." That flattery has now reversed on exactly the schedule management described, and the CFO told this call to expect more of it: depreciation is "further growing compared to the previous part of the year," with "an acceleration which is consistent with introduction of new models."

Read the two margin lines together and the operating picture is better than the EBIT line alone suggests. At the gross level the business improved sharply, with cost of sales down about 230 basis points year over year. Below that line Ferrari is absorbing the depreciation of a model cycle it is in the middle of launching. The company is not giving up operating margin to competition or to discounting. It is giving it up to its own capitalized development costs rolling into the income statement, which is the best reason there is to lose a margin point.

Revenue assessment. An in-line revenue print is the correct read, and it matters less than the composition. Ferrari delivered 33 fewer cars and collected €107M more for them, which is the entire investment case in one line. Two sub-lines are worth separating. Other revenue rose 18% almost entirely on renting Formula 1 engines to rival teams, a genuinely new and recurring stream of modest size. Sponsorship rose only 4% because the prior season's championship ranking suppressed this year's commercial share, a drag that reverses in 2027 if the current second-place standing holds, since Formula 1 commercial revenue is paid on the preceding season's finish.

Margin assessment. The 130-basis-point EBIT margin expansion is real and was earned above the gross line, but investors should stop treating the June quarter's 31.2% as the reference point. Three of the four quarters of 2026 now sit at or below 29.7%: 29.7% in March, 31.2% in June, 29.7% in September, and the raised full-year floor implies 28.9% in December. The 31.2% was the depreciation trough, not the operating peak, and management said as much at the time. The honest framing of the full year is a business running near 30% with about a point of noise either side, inside a guided floor of at least 29.8%.

EPS assessment. A 3% EPS beat against a 1.8% EBIT beat, in a quarter with no adjustments and no unusual items, is about as clean as this line gets. The share count contributed about 1.2 points of the 14%, or roughly a twelfth of the growth, so this is earnings rather than denominator. On the comparable guidance-floor measure the share count supplied roughly a tenth of this quarter's raise against roughly a third of June's. The item to watch is tax. A 23.0% effective rate with the Patent Box benefit already inside it leaves less room than the 22.0% of a year ago, and the release describes the quarter's rate as "mainly reflecting the estimate of the benefit attributable to the new Patent Box," which is an estimate rather than a settled position.

Segment Performance — Geographic

Ferrari does not report profit by segment. It reports shipments by market and gives a narrative attribution of revenue change by region, so the geographic table below is the closest thing to a segment disclosure the company provides. The market-level detail comes from the interim report rather than the results release.

Q3 2026 Shipments by Market

Nine-Month Shipments by Region

Americas — the question this quarter was set to answer

Three months ago Americas deliveries fell 206 units, or 20.7%, with the United States alone down 18.1%. Management attributed the drop to launch cadence and to longer build times on more heavily personalized cars, an explanation this desk called plausible and externally unverifiable, and we named the Q3 Americas line as the clearest available test of it. The test has been passed, if only barely. Americas deliveries came in at 1,050 units against 1,045, and the United States at 925 against 918. Both are essentially flat rather than recovering, but flat was what the explanation implied, and a demand problem does not stop on schedule.

The revenue consequence is larger than the unit consequence. The Americas contributed €87M of the €107M increase in cars-and-spare-parts revenue, the largest regional contribution in the quarter, on five additional cars. That is mix and personalization inside a single region, and it is the cleanest available evidence that the uplift is not confined to a halo model allocated to Europe. The nine-month line is still down 193 units, so the full-year Americas figure will finish below 2025 even if December is strong.

Assessment: The build-complexity explanation survived its first real check, and the Americas volume risk we opened last quarter moves from an open question to a contained one. We would not call it closed. Flat units in the quarter that was supposed to show the catch-up is the low end of what the explanation predicted.

Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan — worse in units, finally explained

The region delivered 143 cars against 248, down 42.3%, and Mainland China alone fell to 60 units from 153, down 60.8%. At 4.2% of shipments this is the smallest the region has been in the five quarters this desk has on file, having run 7.3%, 5.8%, 7.4%, 5.5% and now 4.2%. Nine-month Mainland China deliveries are down 30.8%. The regional revenue effect was a €68M reduction in cars-and-spare-parts revenue, the only negative geographic contribution in the quarter and roughly four fifths the size of the positive one from the Americas.

What changed this quarter is not the number but the disclosure. For four consecutive quarters the region received no attention in prepared remarks and no direct question, including the quarter it grew. This time it was asked, and the CEO answered without hedging.

"I think two deductions that you did are very right. Number one is what you said, is because of the model changeover in China that we had this swing in mainland China."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: An explanation is better than silence, and this one is internally consistent, since the models phasing out in the quarter are the ones that had been allocated to China in volume. It is also unfalsifiable in the same way the Americas explanation was, and it has to be checked the same way. If the changeover is the cause, the region recovers as the new models reach global distribution, which management says happens in the December quarter. This bear point stays at its most severe status until that shows up in units, because it is now five declines in six quarters.

EMEA — a regional total that conceals a complete reshuffle

Total EMEA rose 2.6%, which looks like nothing happening. Underneath, Germany fell 98 units and France 38, while Italy rose 57, the United Kingdom rose 50, the Middle East rose 27 and other EMEA rose 36. Germany moved from 9.9% of global shipments to 7.1%, and the United Kingdom from 2.9% to 4.4%. This is what Ferrari's allocation model looks like in data: the company states plainly that it serves closer markets first on a new launch and rolls out progressively, so a 29% swing in a large European market during a changeover quarter is a scheduling artifact rather than a demand signal.

The Middle East line deserves its own note. It delivered 213 units, 6.3% of global shipments, up 14.5% in the quarter and up 19.5% over nine months, in a region that was disrupted by active conflict two quarters ago. The guidance language still carries the qualifier that the outlook rests on "current visibility on the Middle East crisis effects," so the risk is not retired, but the region held near flat in the conflict quarter and has grown in the two quarters after it.

Assessment: The geographic allocation flexibility pillar continues to do exactly what we underwrote it to do. Investors should resist reading any single-market swing in a changeover year as a demand datapoint in either direction, and that discipline applies to the Italian and British increases as much as to the German and French declines.

Rest of Asia-Pacific — the quiet grower

Rest of Asia-Pacific delivered 688 units, up 4.4%, and took 20.4% of global shipments against 19.4%. Over nine months it is up 2.5%, and the quarter's 20.4% is the highest share of the five quarters this desk has on file. It contributed €18M of revenue growth. Japan is the largest component and is also, with the US dollar, one of the two currencies named as a translation headwind, so the region is growing in units while costing money in euros.

Assessment: Asia-Pacific excluding Greater China has quietly replaced Mainland China as Ferrari's Asian growth engine, and at 1,919 nine-month units against 583 the substitution is more than complete. This goes under-discussed on the call and in the Street commentary, and it is a structurally better position than the headline China weakness implies.

Segment Performance — Revenue Category

Cars and spare parts

The core line rose €107M on 33 fewer deliveries. The company attributes the increase to the richer sports car mix, supported by the F80, and to higher personalization, with currency a partial offset. Spare parts made their own contribution, appearing in the EBIT bridge as a positive volume variance worth €8M, which management attributed to customers simply driving their cars more.

"Personalizations surpassed 21% of total revenues from cars and spare parts and was particularly relevant for the 296 Speciale family. The adoption of carbon and paints continue to drive revenue growth."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

That sentence is the most precise personalization disclosure of the covered period. The rate ran at approximately 20% through the September 2025, December 2025 and March 2026 quarters, moved to "more than 20%" and "higher than expected" in June, and has now cleared 21% with a named model family behind it. The company entered the year guiding to approximately 20%.

Assessment: This is the pillar that carries the thesis, and it got stronger in both level and specificity. The qualifier is that the quarter's personalization leader was the 296 Speciale family, a special series, and special series ran an unusually high share of shipments. The durable question is what the rate reads when the special-series concentration normalizes, which management says it will.

Sponsorship, commercial and brand

Up only 4% as reported and 7% at constant currency, the slowest of the three lines, and the reason is mechanical rather than commercial. Formula 1 commercial revenue is paid on the preceding season's championship finish. Ferrari credited a better prior-year ranking for lifting this line 22% in 2025 and now blames the prior-year ranking for holding it back, so the 2025 finish was the weaker of the two and the 2026 receipt is suppressed. Sponsorship itself and lifestyle both grew. Over nine months the line is up 7%, ahead of the quarter, because the comparison hardens as the year progresses.

Assessment: This line is positioned to become a tailwind. Ferrari currently sits second in the constructors' championship, which if it holds lifts 2027 commercial revenue against a 2026 base depressed by the 2025 finish. Few people model this line carefully and it is one of the cleaner forward positives in the business.

Other revenue

Up 18% and 4.7% of the total, driven mainly by renting Formula 1 power units to rival teams. Over nine months the line is up 22%, from €215M to €264M, the fastest growth of any revenue category. It also carries financial services and the Mugello circuit.

Assessment: Engine rental is a high-incremental-margin use of engineering Ferrari has already paid for, and it is growing from a small base at the fastest rate in the company. It will not move the thesis at under 5% of revenue, but it is the kind of line that quietly adds a point of group growth and deserves more attention than it gets.

Product and Powertrain Mix

Several model families stepped up in the quarter. The Amalfi, the 296 Speciale, the 12Cilindri Spider and the Purosangue all grew, the 849 Testarossa and the 296 Speciale Aperta continued ramping, and the 849 Testarossa Spider began deliveries. Three phased out: the Roma Spider, the 296 GTS and the SF90 XX family. The 296 GTB had already ended its lifecycle in the first half. That reshuffle is why no single quarter's regional or powertrain mix in 2026 should be read as a trend.

The special-series share is the figure doing the most work in this quarter's margin, and it deserves care, because it appears in neither the results release nor the interim report. It entered the record when an analyst put approximately 22% to management against approximately 13% in the first half. The CFO neither disputed the figure nor let it stand as a new baseline.

"The share of special series, even this one, I think we have already commented in the past. This year is very special. There is a concentration of special series. We expect this to normalize going forward."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: Hybrid share rising to 32.5% of shipments, just under a third, is a portfolio artifact rather than a strategic shift. One hybrid model was added to the line-up while the internal combustion count held at six, even as the hybrid 296 GTS and SF90 XX family phased out, and the company has given no indication that the three-powertrain framework has changed. The special-series concentration is the more important number, because it is simultaneously the explanation for the quarter's margin strength and an explicit warning about the 2027 comparison, delivered by the company itself without being pressed.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

Overall Management Tone: Management was relaxed and specific, and noticeably more forthcoming than in June. Where the prior call met the volume question with a refusal and the China question with silence, this one volunteered a directional statement on fourth-quarter deliveries, named the cause of the Chinese decline, put a number on the F80 run rate and disclosed the internal composition of personalization revenue. Every question about 2027 was deferred to February, consistently and without irritation, and the one place the posture tightened was the Luce, where a direct request for the buyer split drew an explicit refusal rather than a deflection.

1. The Order Book Reaches Into 2028

The single most valuable disclosure of the quarter sits in the CEO's quote at the top of the release, and it pushes the horizon of the most important pillar of this thesis past 2027 entirely. The progression across the covered period is clean and worth stating in sequence: the December 2025 release said the order book "extends towards the end of 2027," the June 2026 release said it "entirely covers 2027," and this release says it reaches into 2028. The word "2027" does not appear anywhere in the Q3 release.

"Our order book now reaches into 2028, and we still have two more launches to come this year. In addition, we continue to create engaging events around the world to further tighten the bonds with our clients and partners across Racing, Sports Cars and Lifestyle."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

On the call the CEO repeated the point in the prepared remarks with the same framing and added that demand is healthy "across all geographies." Three months ago this desk flagged the entry of the 1,499 fully allocated 12Cilindri Manuale units into the order book as the mechanism that would push coverage past 2027. The Manuale launched at the beginning of July, inside this quarter, and coverage now extends past 2027. The company does not confirm the causal link, and we are inferring it, but the timing lines up exactly.

Assessment: This is the pillar that separates Ferrari from every other luxury franchise. In August the book covered six quarters, to the end of 2027. One quarter later it has been consumed by a quarter and extended by a year of naming, so forward coverage still runs beyond five quarters and now reaches past the 2027 horizon entirely. For a business whose constraint is production rather than demand, order-book duration is the closest thing to a revenue guarantee available in public markets, and it is the main reason a thin implied return can still support an Outperform.

2. Personalization Clears 21%, and Its Composition Is Disclosed for the First Time

The rate itself is covered above. The genuinely new disclosure came in response to a question about what the new paint shop means for the business, and it is the first time Ferrari has broken personalization revenue into its components.

"I can tell you that we had a deep analysis with Antonio and the team. I would like to share with you some things. Number one, when you talk about the personalization, one-third is coming from the material client are selecting, 1/3 in value. 1/3 is coming from the exterior, including the painting, the color, and 1/3 is coming from what the client select in the cabin. So it is equally spread."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

An even three-way split across materials, exterior and cabin is more reassuring than any single concentration would be. It also answers a question that had been open since the Capital Markets Day: carbon fibre supply was once described as a constraint on how much personalization Ferrari could sell, and management now says it is not.

"The story of the personalization, you remember well, there was, in the past, a shortage on the carbon. We have been able to nail down some good, let me say, contract on the supply side. That is not the limiting factor. We do not see it as a headwind."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: Two of the three recurring bear objections to the personalization pillar have now been answered on the record. It is not concentrated in one option category, and it is not supply-capped. The third objection, that the current rate is flattered by a special-series-heavy year, remains live and management has effectively conceded it.

3. One Guidance Line Became a Ceiling

Four of the five guided metrics carry a "greater than or equal to" sign or an approximation. Industrial free cash flow does not. It moved from "at least €1.55B" at the June print to "up to €1.65B" now, and that is a change in kind rather than in degree. Nine-month industrial free cash flow was €1,496M, which is 91% of the new figure, so the fourth quarter is capped near €154M against €324M in the comparable quarter of 2025.

"Industrial Free Cash Flow generation was also strong, almost achieving our full-year guidance in the first nine months."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

The mechanism is visible in the quarter's own disclosure. The €567M of industrial free cash flow was driven by profitability and "a positive change in working capital, mainly reflecting the advances collection," and advances on Icona, Supercar and special-series orders are customer prepayments that land ahead of delivery. Collecting them early is a timing benefit, not a new source of cash, and the capped guide is the company telling investors that some of it reverses.

Assessment: Investors should not extrapolate the €567M quarter, and they should notice that Ferrari changed the grammar of a guidance line rather than just the number. Nobody asked about it on the call. This is a well-flagged pull-forward rather than a problem, but a fourth quarter at less than half the prior year's cash generation will read badly to anyone who has not done this arithmetic.

4. The Guidance Upgrade That Landed on Top of Consensus

This guidance raise did not exceed where the Street already sat, and it is the reason a clear beat produced a muted first reaction. Management raised revenue to approximately €7.65B against a pre-print consensus of €7.64B, and the adjusted diluted EPS floor to at least €9.85 against a consensus of €9.86. On both lines the company caught up to the Street rather than leading it.

Three updated assumptions underpin the raise, and only one of them is operational. Personalization running stronger than initially expected is a business improvement. A smaller currency headwind, net of hedges, is a market gift. Second place in the Formula 1 championship is a cost assumption rather than a revenue one, because it reduces the accrual for success-linked costs in the current year.

Assessment: The "guidance is a conservative floor" pillar is still intact in substance, since Ferrari has now raised twice in a year while absorbing a €113M nine-month currency hit, and the floors continue to be beaten. But the framework has lost its information advantage over the Street. When the guide leads consensus, each raise is a catalyst. When it matches consensus, each raise is confirmation. That distinction is worth multiple points, and it is a genuine, if subtle, deterioration in the thesis.

5. The CEO Answers the Volume Question Management Had Stopped Answering

In June, management escalated from declining to guide unit volumes to declining to discuss them, with the CFO saying the unit count "doesn't make a big difference, very honestly." This desk treated that as the hardening of a disclosure posture. On this call the CEO reversed it, with no change in stated policy, in response to the second question of the session, which asked for fourth-quarter colour while explicitly acknowledging that the company does not comment on volumes.

"The second, let's say, your deduction is also correct. Q4 year-over-year will increase. So, congratulations for your right deduction."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

The CFO corroborated it from the guidance side, saying volumes were not adjusted in the upgraded guide and "volumes benefit from an easy comp with last year." The comparison is indeed easy: the December 2025 quarter delivered 3,152 units, the lowest of the five quarters on file here.

Assessment: This matters more for what it says about disclosure than for what it says about volume. The opacity risk this desk opened in June has partially reversed, because management has shown it will give directional volume colour when the direction is favourable. That asymmetry is itself informative and should be remembered the next time no colour is offered.

6. The F80 Run Rate, Finally Framed With a Number

The F80 has been named as the principal driver of the product-mix variance in both of the last two quarters, and in June its quarterly volume was characterised only as "really modestly higher compared to Q1." That gap between stated importance and disclosed quantity was the largest single information deficit in the June quarter. It has now been partially closed, in response to a question that put a reverse-engineered range of 17 to 50 units to management directly.

"The first one, on F80, we have been growing just slightly quarter-over-quarter, and therefore, we were still within the region of 50 units."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

A later question pressed whether the F80 would reach the 70 to 80 units per quarter its predecessor achieved. The CFO declined the number but confirmed the shape: "We said, however, that we want to grow smoothly the delivery pace of the F80."

Assessment: Roughly 50 units per quarter against a €119M product-mix variance means the F80 is not large enough on its own to explain the quarter's margin, which strengthens rather than weakens the personalization argument. It also means the supercar is not yet at the historical run rate of its predecessor, so this driver has room left rather than being at its peak.

7. The Formula 1 Provision, and the Cost Line Behind It

Three months ago this desk listed the Formula 1 in-season ranking accrual as a commitment to watch, because an assumed ranking that proves too optimistic releases a provision and one that proves too pessimistic builds it. The upgraded guidance now names "Second place in the Formula 1 Championship" as an explicit assumption, which is new to the assumption list. Asked directly whether a provision release would land in the fourth quarter and how large it would be, the CFO bounded it without sizing it.

"With respect to the second quarter, which was on Formula 1 championship bonus release, we already adjusted some of our assumptions in Q3. The one in relation to the constructors' championship, as we said, is encompassing the full-year guidance. We do not go into the details of the size, but it is not very material, some few millions."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

In the prepared remarks the CFO placed the other side of the same item inside the quarter's EBIT bridge: the higher costs implied by the better in-season ranking assumption "were substantially offset by the positive contribution from racing and lifestyle activities." The nine-month bridge carries the same cost headwind more visibly, inside a €53M negative selling and administrative variance.

Assessment: Sized at "some few millions," this is now a closed question and a smaller one than we feared. The forward implication is more interesting than the backward one. A second-place finish this season raises 2027 commercial revenue against a suppressed 2026 base, which is a tailwind the company has not quantified and most models do not carry.

8. Currency: The Headwind Narrows, and 2027 Is No Longer Unhedged

Currency took €45M out of quarterly EBIT and €113M out of nine-month EBIT, net of hedges, and remains the largest single negative item in both bridges. The full-year expectation improved on the call.

"I think I commented some while ago as to the fact that we were expecting a negative foreign exchange rate impact of around EUR 200 million. Considering where the spot rate is today, it would be lower than that, but still is the reference. So between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million, overall full-year basis."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

The CFO put the blended fourth-quarter euro-dollar assumption at "approximately more than 1.15. Blended between spot and hedges," and declined to give a 2027 figure. On the hedging question itself, the answer was materially better than the one given in June, when 2027 was described as largely uncovered.

"We use a 12-month rolling foreign exchange rate policy, and therefore every month we hedge for the next 12 months with a view to be approximately 70% hedged. Clearly, the more you go ahead to 2027, the more you benefit from the reduction of the spot rate that we have been enjoying the last few months, and there is a portion of that in every single quarter, future quarter."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

The CFO also made a point that is easy to miss and important for modelling: while the spot comparison is becoming favourable, "we continue to record a negative variance from prior year hedges." The hedge book lags the spot improvement by up to a year.

Assessment: This materially improves the 2027 setup relative to our June read. A 70% rolling hedge ratio struck progressively at better rates converts what we characterised as an unquantified 2027 risk into a staged tailwind. It remains unsized by the company, and the lag works both ways, but the shape is now disclosed rather than guessed.

9. Depreciation Reverses From Tailwind to Headwind, on Schedule

Depreciation and amortization ran €174M, €150M and €190M across the three quarters of 2026. The June dip was explicitly temporary and the September step-up is explicitly structural, and the CFO guided the fourth quarter higher again.

"Where we do expect to have in the last quarter different is that in terms of cost, we'll have an incidence of expenses for marketing and events higher compared to Q3, and we still expect to have D&A further growing compared to the previous part of the year. There is an acceleration which is consistent with introduction of new models."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Asked whether anything beyond new models was in the increase, such as accelerated depreciation on existing assets, the CFO was unambiguous: "this is entirely due to the new model introductions. As soon as we start production of a new model, then we start having D&A accruing to the P&L." Nine-month amortization of capitalized development costs reached €263M against €236M, and nine-month capitalized development spending was €352M against €326M, so the roll-in continues for several years.

Assessment: This is the cleanest explanation available for the back-half margin compression, and it is the right kind of margin loss. It is also the reason the December-quarter EBIT margin guide implies 28.9%, and the reason investors should anchor on EBITDA margin when judging the operating trend in a changeover year.

10. Tariffs Disappear From the Quarterly Commentary

In the June quarter, United States import tariffs were named inside cost of sales for the first time, in both the quarterly and the half-year commentary, and this desk flagged the absence of a size as the residual gap. This quarter the disclosure moved backwards. Tariffs appear in the interim report only in the nine-month cost-of-sales discussion and the nine-month EBIT bridge, where the product-mix contribution is described as "net of higher import tariffs in the United States." The three-month cost-of-sales commentary and the three-month EBIT bridge do not mention tariffs at all, and the results release names them only in the boilerplate risk list.

The operational answer is still visible: cost of sales fell about 230 basis points as a share of revenue in the quarter, so whatever the tariff costs, mix is comfortably absorbing it. Tariffs were not raised once in the Q&A.

Assessment: A cost item that was named in the quarterly discussion one quarter and omitted the next, while remaining in the cumulative discussion, is most likely immaterial at the quarterly level. We read the omission as a size signal rather than an evasion, which is a modest improvement, but the exposure remains unsized and a rate change therefore remains unmodellable.

11. Luce: 2027 Fully Allocated, Still No Units

The Luce is Ferrari's first electric car and it appears exactly once in the results release, in a sentence about an auction, and not at all in the interim report. Every substantive detail came from the call, where the CEO gave the most structured update yet: first deliveries in the fourth quarter, 2027 deliveries fully allocated, more than fifty local premieres and private views completed across the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, international media test drives planned for the first quarter of 2027 with client test drives after. The car remains in production as planned.

"Then all the Luce that we plan to sell next year basically are all allocated. If someone comes, he has to wait one year to get the cars."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Asked directly for the buyer split between existing and new clients, and for a 2027 unit figure, the CEO refused rather than deflected: "we cannot, we do not want, we know, but we cannot provide you the split between the repeaters and the new client." He described the mix as good across both client type and geography, with "not a specific pattern" and interest "coming from people of different age and different countries." The Luce "Chassis 0" sold at auction for $40 million at Pebble Beach, with proceeds going to an educational project.

Assessment: A fully allocated 2027 with a one-year waiting list is the first hard commercial fact Ferrari has given about this car, and it is enough to move the Luce pillar from at-risk back on track. It is still unquantified, and a third consecutive quarter without a unit number means this stays a faith-based line item in every model on the Street, including ours.

12. The 2027 Question, Asked Five Ways and Deferred Five Times

Five separate analysts tried to extract 2027 guidance, on average selling price growth, volume and mix, hedging and the profitability path. Every attempt was deferred to the February full-year call, politely and identically. The one substantive thing management did say about 2027 was a reaffirmation of the Capital Markets Day framework and an explanation of where 2026 diverged from it.

"Last year, we said that we would have expected development smooth and linear. That is what we said at the Capital Markets Day. What went differently, if I look at 2026 compared to our initial expectations, is basically two elements. The first one is the level of personalizations. We guided for 20%. We are above that level... The second element which makes a difference is the foreign exchange rate. At the Capital Markets Day, we said we would have expected 120. We are lower than that. We are benefiting from this... But the Capital Markets Day assumptions remain intact in terms of how we think about the development and introduction of new models."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

That answer is more useful than it first appears, because it names the two reasons 2026 is running above plan and classifies one of them as a market variable. It also repeats, as in August, that management declines to upgrade the long-term framework on the strength of good quarters.

Assessment: The refusal to re-rate its own plan is a governance positive and a valuation negative at the same time. It protects the company from having to defend an elevated trajectory, and it denies investors the raised long-term algorithm that would justify paying a higher multiple. Nothing about that tension changed this quarter.

13. Residual Values, and the Hybrid Problem Receding

Residual values are the quiet health metric for this business, because a Ferrari that depreciates faster damages both the brand and the client's willingness to order the next one. Two consecutive calls have now been asked about them, and the answer improved.

"The residual value, we see that they are very sound across different models and across different countries. We are very pleased because we see that the residual value is very good. That is important. This is true also, let us say, different models, either the recent one or the less recent one."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

On the specific historical weakness in plug-in hybrid residuals, the CEO attributed the improvement to dealer education and to client familiarity: dealers "are getting more usage also to explain how to use the hybrid," and have developed "very simple and clear educational material." He also addressed the affordability question that has begun to circulate across the broader automotive sector, rejecting the framing before answering it: "we are not a luxury company. We are a unique company that is luxury and technology," followed by "we see healthy demand across all the models and across all the geographies."

Assessment: With hybrids now nearly a third of shipments, a receding residual-value problem in that powertrain is a larger positive than it would have been two years ago. The affordability answer is a qualitative assertion rather than evidence, but the order book reaching into 2028 is the evidence, and it is better than any answer management could have given.

14. Capital Allocation and the Swing Back to Net Cash

Ferrari repurchased €173M of stock in the quarter and a further €61.5M between October 1 and October 30, buying 176,262 shares in that month. The programme is the third tranche of a multi-year buyback of approximately €3.5B expected to run to 2030, announced at the October 2025 Capital Markets Day. At October 30 the company held 2,038,689 treasury shares, 1.15% of issued common shares.

The €350M swing from net industrial debt to net industrial cash was accomplished while returning €173M to shareholders. The headline net debt figure of €1,393M is almost entirely the asset-backed financing of the United States customer receivables book inside Ferrari Financial Services, which stood at €1,876M at September 30 against €1,613M at December 31. That is a funding structure for a lending business, not leverage on the car business.

Assessment: The industrial balance sheet is in the same place it has been all year, swinging either side of zero on working-capital timing while the buyback runs. Investors should read the industrial line and ignore the headline, and they should not read the September net cash position as an improvement on March, when it was €388M.

Guidance & Outlook

Note that the per-share figures rest on different share counts. The new EPS floor uses the weighted average diluted count at September 30 of 176,510 thousand, the prior floor used 176,804 thousand at June 30, and the 2025 comparative used 178,321 thousand at December 31. Holding implied earnings constant, the smaller count alone would have lifted the old €9.68 floor to €9.70, so roughly a tenth of the €0.17 raise is denominator rather than numerator. That is a far smaller share-count contribution than the third we identified in the June raise.

Updated and Confirmed Assumptions

Three assumptions were updated to support the raise:

• Stronger personalizations than initially expected. The company entered the year guiding to approximately 20% of cars-and-parts revenue and is now above 21%. The CFO added that the fourth quarter is supported by "the higher concentration of special versions planned in the fourth quarter."
• Lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. The full-year drag is now framed at €150M to €200M against a prior reference of approximately €200M, on a blended fourth-quarter euro-dollar rate of "approximately more than 1.15."
• Second place in the Formula 1 Championship. New to the assumption list. It reduces success-linked cost accruals, with the constructors' championship element sized at "some few millions" and partly taken in the third quarter already. Management assumes "all four remaining races will be confirmed."

Four assumptions were confirmed unchanged against 2025: a significant model change-over shaping the year with positive product mix, higher racing and lifestyle revenues, increased brand investment alongside racing and digital expenses, and higher depreciation in line with the start of production of new models. The guidance continues to carry the qualifier that it rests on "current visibility on the Middle East crisis effects."

Implied Fourth Quarter

Subtracting nine-month actuals from the guided figures gives the arithmetic the company is committing to. The 2025 comparatives are derived the same way, by subtracting nine-month 2025 actuals from full-year 2025 actuals.

Implied quarter-over-quarter ramp. The revenue line is the demanding one. Ferrari needs approximately €1,968M in the December quarter, up 9.2% year over year, against nine-month growth of 6.3%. Holding sponsorship near €225M and other revenue near €115M leaves roughly €1,628M of cars and spare parts, up about 9.8% on a €1,483M base. If deliveries grow 4% to roughly 3,280 units, revenue per car has to reach about €496K, which would exceed any quarter of the covered period and run 5.5% above the prior-year quarter. If deliveries grow 9% to roughly 3,440, revenue per car only needs about €473K, close to the level just delivered. In other words the guide works on a range of volume outcomes, but every one of them requires revenue per car at or above the third quarter's €471K, and the lower-volume paths require a record.

Street at. This is the unusual part of this print. Pre-print consensus already carried full-year revenue at €7.64B and adjusted diluted EPS at €9.86, against the new guide of approximately €7.65B and at least €9.85. The raise therefore delivered the Street essentially nothing it did not already have. It arrived level with consensus rather than ahead of it.

Guidance style. Unchanged and still conservative in construction. Four of the five metrics are floors or approximations rather than point estimates or ranges, and Ferrari has beaten the floor in every quarter of this coverage. Nine-month EBIT margin of 30.2% already sits 40 basis points above the raised full-year floor of at least 29.8%, which tells you the company expects to beat the number it just published. The informative change is not in the style but in the grammar of one line: industrial free cash flow is now a ceiling, and nine months have already consumed 91% of it.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Ten analysts asked questions across a session that ran close to the 45 minutes the company budgeted. The dominant themes were the fourth-quarter shape, 2027, and the durability of the mix and personalization engine. The eight exchanges below are the ones that moved information rather than confirming it.

Whether Fourth-Quarter Deliveries Will Rise, Asked Despite the Standing Refusal

The second question of the session went straight to volume, which is the subject management had spent the prior two calls declining to discuss. The question was framed with its own answer attached, noting that the prior-year fourth quarter was weak and that the changeover was completing, and it acknowledged upfront that the company does not comment on deliveries. Management answered anyway, directly and on the record, and covered the same analyst's country-mix question in the same reply.

Q: "The first one is on the shipments. They are reflecting the models changeover, but I was wondering if you can give us any feeling, any colors on the fourth quarter, because last year, the fourth quarter was very negative. I would expect a positive trend this year on the back of the completion of the models changeover, but also on the back of the comparison base. Any colors could be useful. I know that you do not comment on volumes, but it could be useful this time."
— Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo

A: "The second, let's say, your deduction is also correct. Q4 year-over-year will increase. So, congratulations for your right deduction. Country mix-wise, you also read it well. Yes, all the models are approaching the global distribution, and this is embedded in what is the updated guidance that we are providing you, also because the personalization that we have over there are basically start to be fully defined for the year end."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: The most valuable exchange of the call, and the company gave it away for free. A management team that refuses to guide volumes still volunteered the direction of the next quarter's volumes, and confirmed a better country mix alongside it. That removes the single largest unknown in the December quarter and partially reverses the opacity concern this desk raised in August. It also establishes that the refusal to discuss units is softer than it sounded, which is useful information for interpreting future silences.

What the Implied Revenue Acceleration Requires From Volume Versus Price

The sharpest modelling question of the call. The guide implies full-year revenue growth accelerating to at least 9% in the fourth quarter from about 6% over nine months, and the questioner wanted to know which lever delivers it, having already been told that average selling price would be broadly stable between halves. The answer confirmed the composition: no volume assumption was changed, the comparison does the volume work, and selling price carries the rest.

Q: "First question is on the revenue growth acceleration implied by the flow of the guidance. I think it is implied to accelerate to at least 9% from about 6% so far year-to-date. I am just wondering what that might imply in terms of volume and in terms of ASP. I think we had already said ASP is broadly stable H1, H2. Now you have upgraded the guide. Just to clarify that we are looking at broadly stable volume in Q4, but probably quite a bit higher ASP year-over-year in Q4. If you could just confirm if that is broadly the right thinking to support that revenue growth acceleration."
— Henning Cosman, Barclays

A: "In terms of volume and ASP for adjusting the guidance, I think we have been clear. We have not been adjusting volumes. Volumes benefit from an easy comp with last year, as Benedetto commented before, and we expect to have ASP slightly higher, in line with the indication I gave some quarters ago about the fact that the second half would have been slightly better compared to the first one."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: Management confirmed the questioner's framework rather than correcting it, which validates the arithmetic in our implied-quarter table above. The word doing the most work is "slightly." Half-year revenue per car of €468K against a third quarter at €471K leaves very little cushion, so "slightly better" in the second half is already close to delivered, and the December quarter has to supply the revenue acceleration almost entirely from mix on a volume base management will not size. This is the one place the guide depends on something the company has declined to quantify.

The F80 Delivery Run Rate, Reverse-Engineered and Then Confirmed

The supercar has been named as the leading contributor to the product-mix variance for two consecutive quarters without a disclosed volume, so the Street has been inferring it from the bridge. A questioner presented a range of 17 to 50 units for the quarter and asked whether the sequential pace had accelerated. Management confirmed the top of the range and the shape of the ramp. A later question asked whether the car would reach the 70 to 80 units per quarter the prior-generation supercar achieved, and drew a refusal on the number with a confirmation of the direction.

Q: "The first one is the F80. I think, doing the math, you are in anywhere between 17 and 50 units shipped in the third quarter. I think for the first half, people had assumed around 40 units per quarter in Q1, Q2. Are you more or less in that kind of range, or is there any significant or material acceleration or increase sequentially between H1 and Q3?"
— Multiple analysts incl. Edouard Aubin, Morgan Stanley; Anthony Dick, ODDO BHF

A: "The first one, on F80, we have been growing just slightly quarter-over-quarter, and therefore, we were still within the region of 50 units."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: This closes the biggest information gap of the June quarter and the answer is reassuring in an unexpected way. Roughly 50 units cannot by itself produce a €119M product-mix variance, so the mix story is broader than the supercar, which is exactly what the personalization pillar requires. The run rate also sits well below what the predecessor model eventually achieved, so this driver has room ahead of it rather than being spent.

Whether a Formula 1 Provision Release Lands in the Fourth Quarter

The guidance now names second place in the championship as an explicit assumption, which raises an accounting question: if the company had accrued costs against a better expected ranking, some of that accrual should reverse. The question asked for the timing and the size. Management gave the timing precisely, said part of the adjustment had already been taken, and bounded the size without disclosing it.

Q: "Question number two is, as you just mentioned, Antonio, you now assume second place in Formula 1 championship. Regarding the release of provision for Formula 1 championship, will you take this release in Q4? Can you just give us an idea of what roughly is the amount you expect to release in Q4, if that is the case?"
— Edouard Aubin, Morgan Stanley

A: "With respect to the second quarter, which was on Formula 1 championship bonus release, we already adjusted some of our assumptions in Q3. The one in relation to the constructors' championship, as we said, is encompassing the full-year guidance. We do not go into the details of the size, but it is not very material, some few millions."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: Answered and closed. "Some few millions" against a full-year EBIT floor of €2,285M is immaterial, which removes a line item this desk had flagged as a potential distortion in the December quarter. The forward read is the interesting one and nobody pursued it: a second-place finish lifts 2027 commercial revenue against a 2026 base that the 2025 ranking suppressed, and that tailwind is neither sized by the company nor, in our reading of the published models, carried by most of the Street.

What Replaces the €119M Mix Variance in the Fourth-Quarter Bridge

A questioner worked the EBIT bridge forward, proposing roughly €85M of mix contribution in the December quarter against the €119M just delivered, and asked what else changes. Management declined to confirm the mix number, repeated the half-over-half framing unchanged from the July call, and then volunteered the two cost lines that deteriorate. That second half of the answer is the most concrete forward cost guidance on the call.

Q: "On the EBIT bridge for fourth quarter, the mix was EUR 119 million+ in third quarter. Maybe you could help us think about the tailwinds and headwinds for fourth quarter relative to that number, because I think you previously told us the second half mix would be above first half. If we can orient our models around that, maybe EUR 85 million or more coming from mix in the fourth quarter. Maybe you could just help us think about the other items in the EBIT bridge that change in fourth quarter."
— Michael Binetti, Evercore ISI

A: "You can do the math, and I said slightly better. In terms of the mix price variance, even there we said we expect it to be slightly better in H2 compared to H1. No change in this respect. Where we do expect to have in the last quarter different is that in terms of cost, we'll have an incidence of expenses for marketing and events higher compared to Q3, and we still expect to have D&A further growing compared to the previous part of the year. There is an acceleration which is consistent with introduction of new models."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: This exchange explains the entire implied December margin step-down and it should settle a debate that has run through three quarters of this coverage. The back-half margin compression is not conservatism in the guide and not a rounding artifact of a floor. It is marketing and events spending plus accelerating depreciation, both disclosed in advance, both tied to launching models. An investor who marks down the December quarter for margin without crediting the reason is mis-reading a reinvestment cycle as deterioration.

Why 2027 Should Be "Smooth and Linear" When Every Lever Points Higher

The most pointed challenge of the session. The questioner listed the identifiable 2027 drivers, a fully allocated manual special series, a higher share of the 296 Speciale family and a rising supercar run rate, and argued that the company's own description of its trajectory cannot be reconciled with them. Management deferred the number to February, then answered the framework question, which is the more useful half.

Q: "It seems from today's perspective, when I count the various levers, we have got the 12Cilindri Manuale, a higher 296 Speciale share, F80 should sell higher. It seems to be a pretty strong year. It seems to be anything but smooth and linear. Therefore, maybe you can share thoughts why it should be just smooth and linear next year."
— Horst Schneider, Bank of America

A: "When it comes to the question, how much should you expect in mix and volume, if the question is about 2027, you have to bear with us. Like we said also to your colleague, in February, we will tell you 2027, and then we will tell you all the drivers that we see for the growth."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: The deferral itself is the information. Management has now declined on two consecutive calls to upgrade its long-term trajectory while beating it, and the explanation given later in the same answer names personalization and the exchange rate as the two reasons 2026 ran above plan, classifying one of them as a market variable outside the company's control. That is a disciplined posture and a valuation problem at once. Anyone paying nearly forty times trailing earnings is paying for an acceleration the company will not endorse.

Luce Buyer Composition and 2027 Unit Volume

Two separate questions pressed for the same thing: who is buying the electric car, from where, and how many are planned for next year. This is the third consecutive call on which the Luce has been raised and the second on which specifics were promised and not delivered. What is different this time is the character of the refusal. In June the answer was a deflection into process; here management stated outright that it knows the answer and will not give it.

Q: "Second question, on the Luce, could you give us a profile of who bought it so far? Is it 50/50 existing customers, new customers, as you thought, or different? Give us some idea of the geographies and maybe how many units, broadly speaking, you plan to ship in 2027."
— Multiple analysts incl. Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux; Martino De Ambroggi, Equita

A: "Okay, I think, Luce, we cannot, we do not want, we know, but we cannot provide you the split between the repeaters and the new client. What I can tell you is that we have a good mix. It is a good mix in terms of client, it is a good mix also in terms of geography. Let me say, there is not a specific pattern. We see the interest coming from people of different age and different countries."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: "We know, but we cannot provide you" is a cleaner answer than three quarters of qualitative reassurance, because it draws the line explicitly instead of implying that detail is coming. Set against the separate statement that 2027 deliveries are fully allocated with a one-year waiting list, the position is defensible: the commercial fact that matters has been given, and the composition has not. We take the allocation statement as sufficient to move this pillar back on track, while noting that the electric transition remains the one part of the plan that cannot be checked against a number.

Whether Industrial Cost and Research Spending Turn Neutral by the End of the Decade

The final question of the call looked past the guidance horizon to the Capital Markets Day targets and asked whether the cost build that is currently compressing margin eventually flattens, which would release margin at the end of the plan. Management reframed it as a research-spending question and split the answer into the part it controls and the part it does not.

Q: "On the topic of higher industrial costs and R&D, not for 2026, 2027, just end of the decade, Capital Markets Day targets, how do you see this trend, this industrial cost basically becoming more of a neutral impact, which obviously would enhance margins for the business?"
— José Asumendi, JPMorgan

A: "First one, I think is, I take it more as a question on development of R&D. I just remind you that there we see the R&D expense to the P&L and in the variance. We have D&A that is dictated by the model life cycle. We have R&D expenses for innovation for the sports car business, and the other piece is the development of expenses from Formula 1. The area that obviously we have less control on is development for Formula 1, because that is dictated by the budget cap evolution that has been growing the level of expenses in the last few years."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: An unusually candid answer and an under-appreciated structural point. Management says sports-car innovation spending grows "very smoothly and lightly," which is benign, and then names Formula 1 development as the line it cannot control because the sport's budget cap has been rising. Research costs reached 13.3% of revenue this quarter against 12.6%, so this is not a theoretical concern. Investors modelling margin expansion to the 2030 targets should treat the racing component of research spending as an externally set cost that rises with the regulations rather than with Ferrari's choices.

What They're NOT Saying

1. The size of the United States tariff, and now its quarterly existence: tariffs were named inside cost of sales in both the quarterly and half-year commentary in June. This quarter they appear only in the nine-month cost-of-sales discussion and the nine-month EBIT bridge. The three-month commentary and the three-month bridge omit them entirely, and the results release carries them only in the boilerplate risk list. No question was asked. The most likely reading is that the quarterly amount is immaterial, but a cost that moves in and out of the disclosure between periods, while never being sized, cannot be modelled against a rate change.
2. Any Luce unit number, for the third consecutive quarter: the word appears once in the results release, in a sentence about an auction, and not once in the interim report. Every fact about the car came from the call. We now know 2027 is fully allocated and that first deliveries land in the fourth quarter, and we still do not know how many cars that is, at what price, or what the production capacity is. Management stated plainly that it will not give the buyer split.
3. The special-series share of shipments, in any filing: approximately 22% of the quarter's deliveries were special series against approximately 13% in the first half, and that figure exists only because an analyst put it to management, who did not dispute it. It is the single largest explanation for the quarter's margin strength and it is absent from the results release and the interim report, where "special series" appears only in the advance-payments accounting note.
4. The quantum of the 2027 currency benefit: management disclosed the mechanism, a 12-month rolling policy targeting approximately 70% coverage, and confirmed that each future quarter carries a portion of the improved spot rate. It declined to give the 2027 assumption. Since currency was explicitly named as one of only two reasons 2026 is running above the Capital Markets Day plan, a tailwind credited when it helps should be sized before the year it is expected to help in.
5. What personalization does when special series normalize: the rate cleared 21% and the CFO said the special-series concentration "is just a result of the model phasing" and will "normalize going forward." Those two statements sit next to each other without being reconciled. Nobody asked what the personalization rate looks like in a normal model year, which is the question that determines whether the 2027 comparison is manageable.
6. Why industrial free cash flow became a ceiling: the guidance line changed from "at least €1.55B" to "up to €1.65B," which is a change in kind. Nine months delivered 91% of it, driven by advance collections that the company itself identifies as a working-capital timing benefit. The change in grammar went unremarked on the call and unexplained in the release.
7. Mainland China beyond the changeover explanation: the region is down 60.8% in the quarter and 30.8% over nine months, and after four quarters of silence it received one sentence attributing the swing to the model changeover. No commentary on dealer inventory, on pricing, on the competitive environment, or on when the region recovers in units. The explanation is plausible and it is also the same category of unfalsifiable attribution that was offered for the Americas a quarter ago.
8. The 2027 average selling price trajectory: asked directly whether mid-single-digit growth was a reasonable expectation after 9% over nine months, management deferred to February. Average selling price is the single variable the entire thesis rests on, and the company has now declined to frame it beyond the current year on three consecutive calls.
9. Which two models launch before year-end: the CEO confirmed two launches "in the physical world" before December 31 and said to "just wait a few more weeks." No segment, no powertrain, no price point. One post-print sell-side note speculated they succeed the 296 GTB and GTS, which the company has not said.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print setup: RACE closed at $403.09 on November 2, up 9.1% year to date against the S&P 500's 10.2%, up 3.8% over the trailing thirty days and up 2.8% over the trailing twelve months. The 52-week closing range entering the print was $314.63 to $436.54, placing the stock roughly three quarters of the way up its own band and about 2% below where our August note was written.
• Print-day session (November 3, before the open): opened at $414.47, a 2.8% gap, traded a range of $408.11 to $421.97, and closed at $414.77, up 2.9% or $11.68. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% the same session, so roughly 2.5 points of the move was stock-specific.
• Volume: 1.1 million shares against a 30-day average of 0.4 million, or 2.7 times normal turnover.
• Next-day session (November 4): opened at $416.46, never traded below the open, and closed at $432.45, up a further 4.3%. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, so roughly 2.7 points was again stock-specific. Volume stayed elevated at 1.0 million shares. Cumulatively the two sessions took the stock from $403.09 to $432.45, or up 7.3%.
• Where that leaves the stock: $432.45 is not a 52-week closing high, which remains $436.54, so neither session took out the band.

The intraday shape of the print day is more informative than the close. The stock traded down initially on the observation that the guidance upgrade merely matched consensus. The low of $408.11 sits above the pre-print close, so the early weakness never became a down day, and the recovery into a 2.9% close came as the margin and EBIT beat was read properly.

The follow-through session is the part that matters for the rating. A 4.3% gain on the day after a print, on still-elevated volume and with the stock never trading below its open, is not a continuation of the earnings reaction. It is a repricing on the second read, and it coincided with at least one sell-side target increase. This is the same signature the June print produced, when the stock closed above the pre-print level in every subsequent session. Institutional buyers appear to be working through positions in a name whose free float turns over slowly, and the pattern has now repeated twice.

Set against the setup, the reaction is a clear positive surprise relative to positioning. The stock entered this print near the top of its 52-week range rather than near the bottom, which is the opposite of the August setup and normally the harder configuration in which to rally. That it rallied 7.3% over two sessions from an already-extended base is the market saying the order book extension and the personalization step-up are worth more than the in-line guide is worth less. We agree with that judgment on the facts, and it is precisely why the implied return on our target has compressed.

Street Perspective

Debate: Does a Guidance Raise Still Count as a Catalyst When It Only Matches Consensus?

Bull view: Ferrari guides to floors and then clears them, so the published number has never been the forecast. Nine-month EBIT margin of 30.2% already runs 40 basis points above the newly raised full-year floor of at least 29.8%, which means the company expects to beat the figure it published this week. On this reading the raise is confirmation that the beat pattern is intact while the business absorbs a currency hit of up to €200M, and the bull camp argues the floor construction is a feature that keeps expectations manageable.

Bear view: The bear camp notes that a raise works as a catalyst only when it moves the guide ahead of where the Street already sits. This one arrived level with consensus on both revenue and earnings per share, and that is a different signal: the company is no longer ahead of the Street's information. Worse, the composition of the raise is two parts market luck to one part operations, since a smaller currency headwind and a lower Formula 1 cost accrual are not business improvements. The sell-the-news framing circulating on the wires was that some investors had expected a larger upgrade.

Our take: The bears are right about the signal and the bulls are right about the number. The guide will be beaten, probably by enough to land the full year near €9.95 of adjusted earnings per share against a floor of €9.85, so nobody should mark down estimates on this. But the informational edge that made Ferrari's guidance a quarterly catalyst has gone, and that is a real change in how the stock gets paid for a beat. From here the company has to deliver upgrades through the 2027 guide in February rather than through the floor mechanism, which concentrates the next twelve months of risk into a single event.

Debate: Is the Mix Engine Durable, or Is 2026 a Special-Series Year?

Bull view: The bull case has strengthened on two fronts this quarter. Personalization cleared 21% of cars-and-parts revenue, above plan for a second consecutive quarter, and management disclosed for the first time that the revenue splits evenly across materials, exterior and cabin, which argues against concentration in any single option category. The carbon fibre constraint that once capped the business has been contracted away. And the order book now reaches into 2028, which means the cars being built today are already sold beyond the 2027 horizon.

Bear view: Special series ran approximately 22% of shipments in the quarter against approximately 13% in the first half, the personalization leader was itself a special series, and the company has said plainly that the concentration is a function of model phasing and will normalize. The bear camp reads 2026 as a cyclically flattered year in which a supercar ramp, a manual halo car and an unusually dense special-series calendar all coincided, and notes that every one of those contributors laps in 2027 against a company that will not raise its long-term earnings algorithm.

Our take: This debate has moved towards the bulls on evidence and stayed with the bears on timing, which is where we left it in August. What is genuinely new is that the quarter supplies a test. Revenue per delivered car was €471K against €484K in June, so the sequential peak is behind us even as the year-over-year rate slowed to 8.3% from 12.2%. The level is holding and the growth rate is already normalizing, which is exactly the path we argued for three months ago. Our expectation remains that the rate settles towards mid single digits while the level holds, and the February guide is where that becomes checkable rather than arguable.

Debate: Has the Multiple Run Past the Earnings?

Bull view: The bull argument is that order-book duration deserves a premium no point-of-sale luxury house can claim. Ferrari knows most of its 2027 revenue and some of its 2028, it is buying back roughly €3.5B of stock through 2030, its residual values are described as sound across both recent and older models, and the business grows earnings while shrinking deliveries. On this view a high multiple on visible earnings is less risky than a lower multiple on discretionary consumer earnings.

Bear view: At $432.45 the stock trades near forty times the trailing twelve-month figure and roughly 37 times our full-year 2026 estimate translated at the company's own rate assumption. The identifiable dollar-denominated sell-side targets sit between roughly $456 and $490, which brackets the current price closely enough that the published cluster is not underwriting much more upside, though most of those were set before this print and the one confirmed post-print increase was a euro target implying rather more. Management has declined on two consecutive calls to lift its long-term earnings algorithm, and two of the three reasons 2026 beat plan are a currency rate and a cost accrual.

Our take: The bears continue to have the better of this debate and the gap has narrowed rather than closed, because the earnings have moved up with the price. We are raising our 2026 and 2027 estimates and lifting the target to $500, which still leaves the stock cheaper on 2027 than it was on 2026 three months ago. But the honest arithmetic is that an investor buying today earns roughly 16% to our target rather than the 19% available in August, on a thesis whose next checkpoint is a February guide the company has spent three calls refusing to pre-announce. That is still a better risk-adjusted proposition than the index. It is not a comfortable one, and another 10% without an estimate revision would take this to Hold.

Model Update Needed

Valuation impact: raising the 12-month price target to $500 from $490. Our full-year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share estimate rises to approximately €9.95 from €9.85, and 2027 to approximately €10.95 from €10.70. Translated at the company's own blended rate assumption of roughly 1.16, the 2027 figure is about $12.70 and 2026 about $11.54. The $500 target applies approximately 39.4 times to the 2027 estimate, which is the same multiple our $490 target carried in August, so the target increase is entirely an earnings decision rather than a multiple decision. Against the November 4 close of $432.45 the stock trades at roughly 37 times our 2026 estimate and roughly 34 times our 2027 estimate, and the implied return to target is approximately 15.6%.

The sequence across the last three notes is worth stating plainly, because it is the opposite of the usual pattern and it is deliberate. In February we set $550 on a $510 share price. In August we cut the target to $490 while raising estimates, because the shares had re-rated 24% and the old multiple predated the Capital Markets Day reset. This quarter we raise both. The multiple has not moved since August; the earnings have. That is the only basis on which we are willing to raise a target in a stock that has already run.

Thesis Scorecard Post-Earnings

Overall: thesis strengthened on the business, unchanged on the stock. This was the best quarter of the coverage arc on the measure that matters most to us, which is whether management delivered what it said it would. Of the seven commitments this desk set in August, five were met or answered favourably, one landed below our estimate with a credible explanation, and one remains outstanding by design. Three of the six standing bear points were downgraded, including the Americas volume point we opened only a quarter ago. Against that, the valuation constraint tightened, and a seventh bear point opens on the guidance mechanism, because a company whose floors now match consensus has lost the quarterly beat-and-raise catalyst.

The thesis as it now stands: Ferrari is the only luxury franchise whose revenue is booked years ahead, it is growing earnings while shrinking deliveries on a personalization engine that has proved broader and more durable than the bears argued, and it has pushed its committed-demand horizon past 2027 and into 2028. The open question is no longer whether the engine works. It is what the engine is worth when the company declines to raise its own long-term plan and the stock trades near forty times trailing earnings.

Action: maintaining Outperform. Raising the 12-month price target to $500 from $490. Hold the position; we would not add at $432. The target increase is earnings, not multiple, and the same multiple applied in August now sits on higher 2027 numbers. The reasons to own this against the index are unchanged and reinforced: an order book into 2028, personalization above plan with its composition now disclosed, an Americas decline that stopped, a Formula 1 commercial tailwind building into 2027, and a hedge book progressively capturing better rates. The reason not to add is also unchanged and sharper: roughly 16% of implied return, management's second consecutive refusal to upgrade the long-term algorithm, and a guidance mechanism that has stopped surprising the Street. Four things are testable at the February print, and they are the checklist for next quarter: whether December deliveries rise as the CEO said and by how much, whether the personalization rate holds above 21% once the special-series concentration normalizes, whether the two year-end launches add to 2028 order-book coverage, and whether the 2027 guide finally moves the long-term algorithm. If the February guide leads consensus again, this becomes a conviction Outperform. If it merely matches, the rating is at risk from the multiple rather than from the business.